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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-12-01T07:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-12-01T07:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16181/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption from AR12787 starting after 2020-12-01T06:30Z as seen by SDO/AIA 094/131/171/193/211/304, and by STEREO-A EUVIA 195. Front enters into the field of view of SOHO C2 at 2020-12-01T07:12Z, C3 at 2020-12-01T08:06Z. The CME front appears as a partial halo in STEREO-A COR2 at 2020-12-01T08:39Z, which is the first available image after a data gap that started at 2020-12-01T07:45Z. The DSCOVR and ACE data are remarkably different for the in-situ signature. DSCOVR data seems to have erroneous sharp increases. From the ACE data, we cannot identify any shock or ICME on Dec 3-5.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-04T02:04Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2020]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
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Most pr. speed = 774.0 km/s 
u_r =      465.882
Acceleration:       1.16813
Duration in seconds:        240770.34
Duration in days:        2.7866937
t2 is negative
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Acceleration of the CME:   1.17 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  747.1 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/12/2020 Time: 02:04 UT

Lead Time: 48.07 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2020-12-02T02:00Z

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